AUGUST 2021 (based on July 2021 Starts Stats)ConstructionIndustrySnapshotIN THIS ISSUE:Commentary & latest starts statisticsINSIGHT view of starts statistics“Top Ten” projects of the monthTrend graphs for 12 key categoriesRegional starts tableDetailed national tableJuly’s Nonresidential Construction Starts-3% M/M, 11% Y/Y & -7% YTDConstructConnect announced today that July 2021’s volume ofconstruction starts, excluding residential work, was 37.6 billion,a decrease of -3.1% vs June 2021’s level. Compared with July 2020,they were 11.3%. On a year-to-date basis, they were -7.1%.GRAND TOTAL starts in July 2021 (i.e., including residentialactivity) were 4% m/m, 19% y/y and 6% ytd.For more information or media inquiries please contact: [email protected] subscribe on a complimentary basis, visit: ts-economic-reports3825 Edwards Road, Ste. 800, Cincinnati, OH 45209 P. 1-800-364-2059 www.constructconnect.com/blog 2021 ConstructConnect , Inc. All rights reserved. The contents of this document cannot be reproduced without the permission of its authors and attribution to ConstructConnect , Inc.
SNAPSHOTVALCONSTRUCTIONUE OF AUUTNNEIISTTEECDDACIOOONNNSSSTTTRRAUURCCTTTSIIOONN SSTTAARRTTSS(BILLIONS O((BFBIICLLLLUIIORRNESNOTF CSUURSR)E NJTU LYS,U20S2)1 JUCLoY,n2st0r2u1ct CoCnonestcrtucONS OF CURRENT S US) JULY, 2021 ConstructtCCoonnnneeccttJuly’s Nonresidential ConstructionStarts -3% M/M, 11% Y/Y & -7% YTDTABLE 1: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIALCONSTRUCTION STARTS — JULY 2021 (ConstructConnect )% Change%%ChangeChange%ChangeJan-Jul 2021 Jan-JulJan-JulJan-Jul2021 21 vs Jan-JulJan-Jul Jul21 21vs vs202121vs( billions) ( ( billions)billions)Jan-Jul 20Jan-JulJul2020Jan-Jul20ConstructConnect announced today that July 2021’s volumeof construction starts, excluding residential work, was 37.6 billion (green shaded box, Table 10, page 11), a decrease ppingRetail/Shoppingvs June 2021’s 38.8 billion (originally reported as 38.4 billion).Retail/ShoppingParking GarageParkingParking GarageGarageCompared with July 2020, however, the latest month’s dollarAmusement AmusementAmusementvolume of total nonresidential starts was 11.3%. On a Privateyear-Office PrivateOfficePrivate OfficeOfficeGovernmentto-date basis (Jan-Jul 2021/Jan-Jul 2020), they’ve been Government-7.1%.Government eWarehouseWarehouseMiscellaneous CommercialMiscellaneous* CommercialMiscellaneousCommercial **COMMERCIALCOMMERCIAL(big subset) (bigCOMMERCIAL(big subset)subset)A Wind Farm, a Warehouse, an Office Tower andthe FBIThe largest construction jobs initiated in the latest monthINDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing)INDUSTRIALINDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing)(Manufacturing)included two mega projects defined as carrying estimatedReligiousReligiousvalues of a billion dollars or more each. Biggest of all was linic 2.8 billion wind farm for power generation to be ivingNursing/AssistedLivingthe coast of Massachusetts. Plus, there was a start-up ona nbillion Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) building in Militaryville, Not exceeding a billion dollars in value but projectedtoMiscellaneous MedicalMiscellaneous MedicalMedicalMiscellaneousINSTITUTIONALaccount for 2.5 million square feet of construction, was INSTITUTIONALJuly’sINSTITUTIONALgroundbreaking on the 57-story JPMorgan Chase office towerMiscellaneous Non-residentialMiscellaneous Non-residentialNon-residentialMiscellaneousin New York. Also, not making it into July’s Top 10 for NONRESIDENTIALBUILDINGvalue, but notable nonetheless, was an Amazon/SeefriedAirportIndustrial Properties’ distribution center in Davenport, ghwayfor 2.9 million square feet.BridgeBridgeBridgeJuly of last year featured only one mega project, the ter/Sewagelion Metro/Foothill Gold Line light rail extension in San ower, pipelines,Civiletc.) pipelines,MiscellaneousCivil (power,(power,pipelines, etc.)etc.)(east Los Angeles), California.HEAVY ENGINEERINGHEAVY(Civil)(Civil)HEAVY ENGINEERINGENGINEERING(Civil)By Major Types of Structure, 3 Distinct PathsTOTAL NONRESIDENTIALTOTALTOTAL 7397.1891.06013.3845.24152.3783.942 1678.739-35.9%8.7397.18923.1%7.1891.0601.060 -18.4%13.38413.384 -15.2%5.24113.3%5.24152.37852.378 l2121vs vsJul21vsJulJun2021Jul20% 315.19337.5703.61766.3060.4930.493 -47.2%10.18035.7%10.1803.2863.286 -20.7%1.5361.536 -46.3%4.4319.8%4.4315.1930.2%5.19337.57037.570 -17.7%3.6173.617 -26.9%66.30666.306 %-19.0%-----3-33.533133.2123.5338.4%3.533133.212 1.3%--11---99--------1122Starts year to date in 2021, according to the three major type* Includes transportation** Includesterminals and sportsterminalsarenas.andIncludes transportationtransportationterminalsand sportssports arenas.arenas.of-structure designations, have traveled quite separate paths.Data source: ConstructConnect.DataData source:source: ConstructConConstructConTable: ConstructConnectTable:- CanaData. - CanaResidential starts have been ahead by more than a quarter,Table: ConstructConnectConstructConnectSource: ConstructConnect Research Group/Table:ConstructConnect. - Cana 26.2%; engineering starts have been flat, -0.6%; and nonresiName of file: Name"U.S. StartsofFull"U.S.DataStartsSet (JulFullData- FINALSet21)in "U.S."Revised"folderinNameof file:file:"U.S.StartsFull 21)DataSet (Jul(JulRevised"21) -- FINALFINALRevised"in "U.S.""U.S." folderfolderdential building starts have been less than sparkling, -11.4%.On a month-to-month basis in July, though, engineeringstarts were the sprightliest, 24.4%, followed by residential,The 3 medicalTheThecategories3 medicalmedicaladdedcategoriesup:addedup:17.084 EMPLOYMENT,17.0843categoriesadded17.084CHANGEIN LEVELOF U.S.CONSTRUCTIONMONTH TO MONTH (M/M) ̶ 12.3%, with nonresidential building still displaying weakness,GRAPH1:CHANGEIN LEVELOFup:U.S. CONSTRUCTIONEMPLOYMENT,TOTAL&BYCATEGORIES̶ JULY, 2021-20.1%.EducationalMONTHasEducational% of TotalNon-resas %% ofof(M/M)Total Non-resNon-res16.2%16.2%TO MONTH TOTAL & BY CATEGORIES– JULY hwaysas % of Total Non-resas %% ofof TotalTotal -4-5-25-18-2-14-50-20Sub-Trades Residential120Sub-Trades ivil2524501367-10Nonresidential Building2060-57301160A50Residential Building30100A‘Starts’ compile the total estimated dollar value and squarefootage of all projects on which ground is broken in any givenmonth. They lead, by nine months to as much as two years, putin-place (PIP) statistics which are analogous to work-in-progresspayments as the building of structures proceeds to completion.PIP numbers cover the ‘universe’ of construction, new plusall manner of renovation activity, with residential traditionallymaking up two-fifths (about 40%) of the total and nonresidential, three-fifths (i.e., the bigger portion, at around 60%).Presently, though, according to the Census Bureau’s June 2021not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) PIP numbers for total U.S.,the year-to-date mix has shifted dramatically. The residential to nonresidential relationship has become approximatelyhalf and half (i.e., 49.0%-to-51.0% respectively). The CensusBureau’s June 2021 NSA ytd PIP results are 5.4% for total;18.4%18.4%34.6%34.6%40150-50M/M No. of Jobs(000s)PIP Stats Also Skew Towards Residential18.4%34.6%200-100M/M No. of Jobs(000s)Other statistics often beloved by analysts are trailing twelvemonth (TTM) results and these are set out for all the varioustype-of-structure categories in Table 10 on page 11 of thisreport. Grand Total TTM starts in July on a month-to-monthbasis were 1.7%, compared with 0.6% in June and 0.8% inMay. On a year-over-year basis in July, GT TTM starts were-4.7% versus -7.9% in June and -9.8% in May. Those latest threey/y percent changes may still be negative, but the trend ismoving in a healthier (less distressed) direction.M/M No. of Jobs(000s)SUMTrailing 12-Month (TTM) Results Less NegativeConstruction hiring in July originated with residential general contractors( 8,000 jobs) and nonresidential sub-trades (also 8,000).source:toBureauof Labor trade.Statistics (BLS) / Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.For each month, ‘net’ zero. ‘Sub-trade’ in BLS dataDatareferredas ‘specialty’For each month, 'net' zero. 'Sub-trade' in BLS data referred to as 'specialty' trade.Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)/Chart: ConstructConnect.Continued on page 3 2021 ConstructConnect , Inc. All Rights Reserved.2
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SNAPSHOTU.S. MANUFACTURING vs CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT ̶ 24.5%, residential; and -8.1%, nonresidential (i.e., nonresidential buildEven with recovery, manufacturing's jobs count is farings18.0 plus engineering).below what it was at the turn of the century. Construction,level PIP numbers, beingthough,morespreadout, have smaller Latestpeak-overis nearpeak employment.12.366 million jobs.trough percent-change amplitudes than the ‘starts’ series.---- As an14.5in Jul 21 additionalvaluable service for clients and powered by Changeits extensivejobs m/m.‘starts’Manufacturingdatabase, ConstructConnect, in partnership with 27,000OxfordEconomics,a world-leader in econometric modeling, has developed put11.0in-placeconstruction statistics by types of structure for U.S. states,ConstructionLatest level cities and counties, ‘actuals’ and forecasts. ConstructConnect’sPIP7.421 million jobs.7.5numbers are being released quarterly and are featured in a separate---Change in Jul 21 reporting system. 11,000 jobs m/m.U.S. EMPLOYMENT2021Y/Y‒ % CHANGE Y/YGRAPH 2: U.S. EMPLOYMENTJULY 2021 – % JULY,CHANGEBASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (SA) DATABASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (SA) DATA16%Latest (July 2021) Y/Y:Services, 6.3%; Construction, 3.1%; Manufacturing, 2.7%.12%Per cent change, month vssame month, previous yearNumber employed (millions)JULY,Continued from page2 2021 ‒ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (SA) PAYROLL DATA4.0LukewarmConstruction Jobs 21-JJThe big drops in employment lastyear are now contributing to largerthan normal percentage gains thisyear. The base or denominator inthe y/y % change calculation willremain restrained for a J16-JJ17-JJ18-JJ19-JJ20-JJ21-JJThe total number of jobsinandtheU.S. construction sector in July roseYearmonthby a lukewarm 11,000. The year-to-date gain in employment has beenYear and monthThe not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate for construction is presently 6.1%. In April 2020, at its 21,000The year-over-yearpercentageincreasein constructionworst, it was jobs.16.6%. Manufacturing'scurrent NSA joblessrate is 4.2%. April2020's extremewas 13.2%.In early 2000, thehasratio ofconstructionto manufacturingjobs was0.4economy-wideto 1.0. Now, it's 0.6 to 1.0.employmentbeen 3.1%,which trailsthe‘all jobs’Thelatest data points are for July, 2021.The latest data points are for Jul, 2021.Data Survey,source: PayrollSurvey,Bureauof Labor(U.S.Statistics(BLS) / Chart:ConstructConnect-CanaData.Data source: PayrollBureauof LaborStatisticsDepartmentof Labor)/Chart:ConstructConnect.climbof 5.2%. But included in the 5.2% is 18.4% for the ‘leisure andLatest data points are for July, hrinkage in barsSource: PayrollSurvey,whichU.S. Bureauof LaborStatistics (BLS)/ Chart:ConstructConnect-CanaData.File name: "Can vs U.S. - U Rate & Employ (Jul 21)" - Web folderContinued on page 4JOBSCHANGE,& SUB-SECTORS2021 –GRAPH Y/Y3: Y/YJOBSCHANGE,U.S.U.S. TOTALTOTAL INDUSTRY& MAJOR- JULY,SUBSECTORSGRAPH 4: SALES SALESBY U.S.MATERIAL& SUPPLIESDEALERSBYBUILDINGU.S. BUILDINGMATERIAL& SUPPLIESDEALERS(Basedon seasonallyadjustedPAYROLLpayroll data)JULY 2021 (BASED ONSEASONALLYADJUSTEDDATA)Leisure & Hospitality18.4%35%7.4%6.3%Professional & Business Services6.1%Educational Services5.9%Information Services5.8%TOTALFor many of thesesectors, employmentdropped so low after thecoronavirus struck inearly 2020 that y/y jobscount comparisons arestaying inordinatelystrong. Construction is ina 7th place tie withwholesale trade for y/ygain. The 'leisure &hospitality' sectorrecovered 380,000 jobsin the latest month.5.2%Retail Trade4.1%Construction3.1%Wholesale Trade3.1%Health Care & Social cial Activities2.1%-5%0%5%10%15%28%21%14%7%0%-7%Sales are being adversely affected by slowingrenovation activity. A re-opening economy iscausing a shift in 6-JJ17-JJ18-JJ19-JJ20-JJ21-JJPRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDINGYear/Year % ChangeTotal Industry & Major SubsectorsTransportation & WarehousingMay 2021 10.9%Not even in the Spring of 2020, when the coronavirusfirst struck, did year-over-year building material salesslip into negative territory.20%Year & MonthY/Y % Change in Number of JobsThe background numbers for this graph are a subset derived from a broader designation that includes gardenequipment. Also, the reported data for sales by 'building material & supplies dealers' alone is always a monthbehind. Latest (May 2021) results were 10.9% y/y, but -4.7% m/m.July 2021's y/y changes in employment within the hardest-hit sector, 'leisure & hospitality', were:'hotels/motels', 28.4%; 'restaurants & bars', 15.2%; and 'amusements/gambling', 26.5%.Data source: Census Bureau / Chart: .BureauBureauofof LaborLabor Statistics/ Chart:ConstructConnect-CanaData.Data source:PayrollSurvey,U.S.Statistics(BLS)(Deptof Labor)/Chart:ConstructConnect.Data Source: Census Bureau/Chart: ConstructConnect.MONITORING THE U.S. EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY ‒ JULY, 2021Name of file: "Retail Sales Monthly (U.S.) (Jun 21)" in Web folder.TABLE 2: MONITORING THE U.S. EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY — JULY 2021The Big Drop(revised data)April 2020 vs Feb 2020(Feb 2020 was last monthunaffected by COVID-19)Change in Number of Jobs (Millions)% ChangeJul 2021 vs Feb 2020Jul 2021 vs Jun 2021(Feb 2020 was last month (i.e., vs previous month)unaffected by COVID-19)Jul 2021 vs Feb 2020Jul 2021 vs Jun 2021(Feb 2020 was last month (i.e., vs previous month)unaffected by COVID-19)MillionsJobsRecovery Claw BackSinceRatioApr 2020,Millions-22.362-14.7%Grand rivate 88679.6%-2.375-15.2%Retail nsportation & Financial 1%Professional & nformation Education and isure & rce:StatisticsBureau of(BLS)Labor/ Statistics(BLS)/Table: ConstructConnect.Data source: Bureauof LaborChart: ConstructConnect-CanaData. 2021 ConstructConnect , Inc. All Rights Reserved.3
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SNAPSHOTContinued from page 3CONSTRUCTION STARTS IN SOME ADDITIONALTABLE 3: CONSTRUCTION STARTS IN SOME ADDITIONAL TYPEOF STRUCTURESUB-CATEGORIESTYPE OF STRUCTURESUB-CATEGORIES— ConstructConnectJan-Jul 2021( billions)Sports Stadiums/Convention CentersTransportation TeminalsCourthousesPolice Stations & Fire HallsPrisonsPre-School/ElementaryJunior & Senior High SchoolsK-12 (sum of above two categories)Special & Vocational SchoolsColleges & UniversitiesElectric Power InfrastructureContinued on page 5 2021 ConstructConnect , Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2.572 2.669 1.591 1.666 1.174 11.132 17.261 28.393 1.032 8.145 9.0%-22.0%172.4%Source & Table: ConstructConnectSource: ConstructConnect/Table:ConstructConnect.GRAPH 5: U.S. CONSTRUCTIONJOB OPENINGS(FROM JOLTS(FROMREPORT)JOLTS REPORT)U.S. CONSTRUCTIONJOB OPENINGS(3-MONTHMOVINGAVERAGESPLACED IN LATEST MONTH)(3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGESPLACEDIN LATESTMONTH)Government Office & Water/Sewage StartsMost % 9-JJ20-JJ21-JJLevel (000s)330.0Year & MonthA big drop in construction job 'openings' began a year before the arrival of the coronavirus in Spring 2020. But then oncethe slide halted, the 'openings' curves (for both level and rate) began climbing steeply once again.*Rate is number of job openings end-of-month as % of 'construction employment plus number of job openings'.*Rateseasonallyis numberadjustedof job openingsend-of-month% ofemploymentplus Turnovernumber ofSurvey.job openings’. Latest seasonallyLatestdata pointsare for June as2021. ‘constructionJOLTS Job Openingsand LaborData source:Bureauof LaborStatistics (BLS) / Chart: ConstructConnect.adjusted data points are for June 2021. . JOLTS Job Openingsand LaborTurnoverSurvey.Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)/Chart: ConstructConnect.Name of this file: 'JOLTS (Jun 21).xlsx' in U.S. & Tweet Picture foldersU.S. CONSTRUCTIONJOB HIRESJOLTS REPORT)GRAPH 6: U.S. CONSTRUCTIONJOB HIRES (FROMJOLTS(FROMREPORT)(3-MONTHMOVINGPLACED IN LATEST MONTH)(3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGESPLACEDIN AVERAGESLATEST JLevel (000s)July’s -3.1% month-to-month (m/m) decrease in totalnonresidential starts was mainly due to substantial weakness in institutional work (-39.3%). Commercial (-5.4%)was also down, but not alarmingly, while engineering wasahead by one-quarter ( 24.4%) and industrial doubled up( 99.8%). The Top 10 projects list on page 8 includes threemanufacturing plants.The 11.3% gain in July 2021’s total nonresidential startsversus July 2020 (y/y) came with support from industrial( 57.1%), engineering ( 25.2%) and commercial ( 16.9%).Only institutional (-19.0%) among the major type-ofstructure categories showed hesitancy.The -7.1% drop in total nonresidential starts year to date(Jan-Jul 2021/Jan-Jul 2020) has resulted from declinesin commercial (-13.6%) and institutional (-11.9%), whileindustrial (-1.3%) and engineering (-0.6%) have stayed onalmost even keels.The two sub-categories that contribute the largest sharesto total nonresidential starts are roads/highways (18.4%)and schools/colleges (16.2%). Added together, their slice ismore than one-third (34.6%). In July, the three time-framemetrics for street starts were 18.9% m/m, 37.4% y/y and 4.5% ytd. For educational facilities, July’s results were-34.3% m/m, -20.3% y/y and -17.7% ytd. Clearly, schoolconstruction has been a casualty of the pandemic.Medical facility starts as the combination of hospitals/clinics, nursing/assisted living and ‘miscellaneous medical’were -53.7% m/m and -33.4% y/y, but a still positive 2.9%ytd in July. At a finer level of detail, hospital/clinic startswere 35.7% ytd, but nursing/assisted living and ‘miscellaneous medical’ groundbreakings were -20.7% ytd and-26.9% ytd respectively.Bridge starts so far this year have been disappointing.In July, they were -4.8% m/m, -30.4% y/y and -26.8% ytd.Apparently, they’re awaiting help from the infrastructurespending package. Water/sewage starts, though, haveheld up well, 8.2% m/m, 22.7% y/y and 10.8% ytd.Within commercial, the big news has centered on someeye-catching year-to-date pullbacks: hotels/motels, -45.3%;and private office buildings, -35.9% (although 90.5%m/m thanks mainly to the JPMorgan Chase tower in NYC).Government office buildings, though, are 23.1% ytd (withthe FBI building in Alabama leading to 175.1% m/m and 157.9% y/y).% Change vsJan-Jul 2020% Rate*and restaurants and hotels/motels throughout 2020 dueto lockdowns and travel bans to fight COVID-19.Construction’s NSA unemployment rate is currently 6.1%,down from 7.5% in June and markedly better than the8.9% recorded in July 2020. Manufacturing’s 8.6% NSA Urate in July 2020 was close to construction’s figure, but ithas since dropped to just 4.2%. The national NSA U rateis 5.7%. Offering encouragement for construction is thepotentially trillion dollar-plus infrastructure package thathas passed the Senate and is presently before the House.Of concern, though, is the possibility of more waves ofvirus infections, beginning with the Delta variant.The latest year-over-year jobs count changes for someother corners of the economy with close ties to construction have been architectural and engineering services, 5.4%; real estate activities, 4.9%; oil and gas extraction, 3.3%; building material suppliers, 2.7%; machineryand equipment rental and leasing, 1.3%; and cement andconcrete product manufacturing, -1.4%. The 5.4% y/y foremployment in design services is especially hearteningbecause an uptick in composing ‘assembly instructions’leads or points the way to more activity in the field.Year & MonthConstruction job 'openings' may be abundant (as they are in many industries), but they are not translating into new 'hires'. Signups of construction workers have recently diminished significantly as a level and even more so as a rate.*Rate is number of hires during month as % of construction employment.Latestpointsare for. JOLTSemployment. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.*Rateseasonallyis numberadjustedof hiresdataduringmonthas June% of 2021.constructionData source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) / Chart: ConstructConnect.Latest seasonally adjusted data points are for June 2021. . JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)/Chart: ConstructConnect.Name of this file: 'JOLTS (Jun 21).xlsx' in U.S. & Tweet Picture folders4
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SNAPSHOTContinued from page 4The tendency for most of the 12-monthmoving average starts trend lines on page 9 tosink with varying degrees of rapidity has finallycome to a halt. There are now only two subcategories still clearly descending, ‘schools/colleges’ (which is dragging down institutional aswell) and bridges.Roads/highways and water/sewage are continuing gradual upwards marches. All the othercurves feature a leveling off, which is good newsconsidering how difficult the last 16 months havebeen. Among major type-of-structure categories, nonresidential building and engineering arecurrently displaying a flattening in their curves,aided by more stable recent performances fromretail, private office buildings, hospitals/clinicsand miscellaneous civil.Wage Gains are Boosting InflationaryExpectationsTables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourlyand average weekly wages for industry sectors.B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses)on non-farm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production andnon-supervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludesbosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there areeight relevant percentage changes to consider.During most of 2020, the year-over-year climbsin pay checks for ‘all jobs’ vastly exceeded whatconstruction workers were seeing in compensation gains. The disappearance of a great many‘gig’ and other part-time ‘casual’ jobs, alongwith special health-jeopardized ‘hazard pay’ forworkers placed in harm’s way by the coronavirus, caused average pay hikes to soar.The discrepancies, however, have now largelybeen eliminated. From Table B3 (includingbosses), ‘all jobs’ earnings y/y in July were 4.0%hourly and 4.6% weekly. The comparable figures for construction workers, as a subset of ‘alljobs’, were 3.7% hourly and again, 3.7% weekly.From Table B8 (excluding bosses), the ‘all jobs’y/y pay bumps were 4.7% hourly and 5.3%Early 2019 to well into 2021 sawfar larger discrepancies betweenyear-over-year 'all jobs' andconstruction worker hourlywage hikes than historically. Inthe past two months, though,they've come back intocloser alignment.8.0%6.0%'All Jobs'Construction4.0%'All Jobs'Jul 2021 4.7% y/y---Latest 3-monthavg 3.6% y/yConstructionJul 2021 4.4% y/y---Latest 3-monthavg 4.4% r & MonthAnalysts will be keeping a sharp eye on earnings. They're a reflection of overall economic activity. Perhaps moreimportant, though, they can provide an early warning of mounting behind-the-scenes inflationary pressure.From 'Production Workers and Non-supervisory Personnel' Table B8.Data source:Bureauof Labor Statistics(BLS)'sEmploymentSituation report / Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.From ‘ProductionWorkersand Non-supervisoryPersonnel’Table(B8).The latest data points are for July, 2021.File name: "Can vs U.S. - U Rate & Employ (Jul 21)" - Web folderData Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report/Chart: ConstructConnect.bU.S. AVERAGEWEEKLY EARNINGSY/Y&‒CONSTRUCTION'ALL JOBS' & CONSTRUCTIONGRAPH 8: AVERAGEWEEKLY EARNINGSY/Y – ‘ALL JOBS’10.0%8.0%'All Jobs'Jul 2021 5.3% y/y---Latest 3-monthavg 4.3% y/y'All Jobs'Construction6.0%4.0%ConstructionJul 2021 4.7% y/y---Latest 3-monthavg 4.5% 21-JAJOStarts Trend Lines Shift from Slides toFlattening% Change Y/Y (3-month moving averages)Monthly JOLTS numbers are exposing quitea conundrum in the construction sector’s labormarket. There’s an obvious mismatch betweenbullish ‘openings’ and bearish ‘hires’. JOLTS is anacronym for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey conducted by the Bureau of LaborStatistics.From Graph 5, construction job ‘openings’,after dipping rather severely in 2020, havesprung back to where they’re now close to their20-year peaks as both a level and a rate. At thesame time, ‘hires’ in the sector, from Graph 6,have dived to a 20-year low as a rate and closeto a 20-year low as a level. This is a reminderthat normal cyclical recovery patterns don’tnecessarily hold true when exiting a pandemic.As just one example, many older workers withspecialized skills have read the health crisis as awarning sign to head for the sidelines and intoretirement. Replacement recruits are hard tofind and will need seasoning.GRAPH 7: AVERAGEHOURLY EARNINGS– ‘ALL JOBS’& CONSTRUCTIONU.S. AVERAGEHOURLYY/YEARNINGSY/Y‒ 'ALL JOBS' & CONSTRUCTION% Change Y/Y (3-month moving averages)JOLTS: Bullish Openings; Bearish ‘Hires’Year & MonthU.S. construction's total jobs count in July increased vs June by 11,000. The sector's latest not seasonally adjusted (NSA)unemployment rate was 6.1% compared with the prior month's 7.5%. A year ago, in July 2020, it had been 8.9%.From 'Production Workers and Non-supervisory Personnel' Table B8.Data source:Bureauof Labor Statistics(BLS)'sTableEmploymentSituation report / Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.From ‘ProductionWorkersand Non-supervisoryPersonnel’(B8).The latest data points are for July, 2021.File name: "Can vs U.S. - U Rate & Employ (Jul 21)" - Web folderData Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report/Chart: ConstructConnect.Continued on page 6 2021 ConstructConnect , Inc. All Rights Reserved.5
Jan-Jul 2021% Change vs Jan-Jul 202020 STATES BY VOLUME OF1 Texas2021 YTD RANKING OF TOP 27,644,613,497-7.9%CONSTRUCTIONINDUSTRYSNAPSHOT2 California 20,095,139,210NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTIONSTARTS - ConstructConnect -16.0%Continued from page 5weekly. Construction workers weren’t far behind, at 4.4% hourly and 4.7% weekly.Notice, howeve
to-date basis (Jan-Jul 2021/Jan-Jul 2020), they’ve been -7.1%. A Wind Farm, a Warehouse, an Office Tower and . the FBI The largest construction jobs initiated in the latest month included two mega projects defined as carrying estimated values of a billion dollars or more each. Biggest of all was a