TECHNICAL AND COST MODEL FOR SLIPWAY DEVELOPMENTNOOR RASHIDAWANI BINTI MD NOORA thesis submitted in fulfilment of therequirements for the award of the degree ofMaster of Engineering (Marine Technology)Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringUniversiti Teknologi MalaysiaOCTOBER 2014

iiiTo my precious and beloved father and late mother, for the love and prays during theday and night,Whom I dedicate this work with great respect and love,Eternally.

ivACKNOWLEDGEMENTIn the name of Allah, Most Gracious, Most Merciful. Praise be to Allah, TheCherisher and Sustainer of the worlds; Most Gracious, Most Merciful; Master of TheDay of Judgment. The do we worship, and Thine aid we seek. Show us thestraightway, the way of those whom Thou has bestowed Thy grace, those whose(portion) is nor wrath, and who go not astray. This thesis is the testimony of the factthat by having faith in Allah, the impossible is made possible. Many times I reacheddead ends; many times I felt frustrated and stressful; it is in Him I found the strength,peace and hope to carry on.I would also like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisor, AssociateProfessor Dr. Mohd Zamani Bin Ahmad of all his encouragements, guidance, patience,dedication and confidence in helping me to complete this project. I would like to expressmy appreciation for him in sharing his professional opinion and knowledge whileworking on my project.Warmest gratitude and special dedication to late mother and father, whom Ican afford on facing any hardship and accomplish this work at my best. Specialgratitude to dearest sisters for the understanding, support and prays. Also thanks toKamarudin, who inspired me to move on forward despite the painstakinglysacrificial. I dedicate this work for our beloved family gratefully. I also extend myutmost gratitude to all my friends who lend a hand in the success of my thesis. Iwould like to thank Sunarsih for their dedication and motivation in helping me toachieve the completion of the research.

vABSTRACTIn recent years, the discussion and progression of slipway construction inMalaysia is developing extensively due to the growth of the fleets registered in thecountry. In conjunction with the slipway constructions, it is crucial for the developerto have an early estimation of the principal dimensions of the slipway as well as thefinal cost since the development of the slipway involves a huge cost. The technicaland cost estimation tools are oftenly used by the key person in the projectmanagement team to identify the technical feature and cost involved in slipwayconstruction project. Therefore, this research is aimed at developing a model toidentify the principal dimensions of the slipway including length, breadth, maximumcapacity, angle, cradle size and construction cost. The technical and cost modeldeveloped can be used as a tool to support the developer in performing the decisionmaking during the pre-design stage of the slipway development project. The modelwas developed by performing regression analysis to the collected historical data fromthe previous slipway projects in Malaysia. A total of thirteen (13) mathematicalequations to identify the slipways’ principal dimension and construction cost hasbeen successfully generated. An Excel package for technical and cost model havealso been developed. The package has been verified by substituting the historicaldata in order to determine the limitations of the package. The technical and costmodel package was deemed appropriate for the slipways with capacity between 277tones to 3363 tones. At the end of the research, the package has been tested todetermine the accuracy of the output was validated by comparing the results againstthe real world data from Slipway Kuala Linggi Project. The highest error found wasonly 13.1% for the slipway length variables, showing that the package resembles thereal world data. Therefore, the technical and cost model developed is consideredrelevant to both industry practitioners and academic researchers.

viABSTRAKKebelakangan ini, pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapal semakin meningkatiaitu selari dengan pertambahan bilangan kapal yang berdaftar di Malaysia. Seiringdengan perkembangan ini, adalah penting bagi pemaju menganggar parameter utamatempat pelancaran kapal ini dan sekaligus menganggar kos yang diperlukan untukmembina tempat pelancaran kapal yang mana ia melibatkan kos yang sangat tinggi.Teknikal dan kos model seringkali diguna pakai oleh orang yang berkepentingandalam industri pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapal walaupun kejituan keputusanyang diperolehi itu berkemungkinan rendah. Kajian ini menumpukan terhadappembinaan model untuk mengenal pasti parameter utama panjang, lebar, kebolehanmaksimum, sudut, dan kos pembinaan bagi tempat pelancaran kapal. Model ini bolehdigunakan sebagai medium utama dalam peringkat awal merekabentuk tempatpelancaran kapal. Model ini dibina dengan mengaplikasikan analisis regresi terhadapdata yang diperolehi daripada projek-projek pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapalyang terdahulu di Malaysia. Sejumlah tiga belas (13) persamaan matematik untukmengenal pasti parameter utama tempat pelancaran kapal dan kos pembinaan telahberjaya dihasilkan. Pakej ‘Excel’ juga telah dibina untuk mengenal pasti parameterteknikal dan kos pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapal. Pakej ini telah disahkandengan menggunakan data yang terdahulu untuk menentukan had kebolehan pakejdalam menentukan parameter utama dan kos pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapal.Teknikal dan kos model yang dibina sesuai untuk pelancaran kapal dengan kapasitiantara 277 hingga 3363 ton. Pada akhir kajian ini, pakej yang telah diuji untukmenentukan ketepatan output. Pakej ini telah disahkan dengan membandingkan datasebenar dari tempat pelancaran kapal Projek Kuala Linggi. Ralat paling tinggididapati hanya 13.1% bagi panjang tempat pelancaran kapal. Oleh itu, model yangdibina dianggap bermanfaat untuk sektor industri dan juga penyelidik akademik.

viiTABLE OF OWLEDGEMENTivABSTRACTvABSTRAKviTABLE OF CONTENTSviiLIST OF TABLESxiLIST OF FIGURES12PAGExviiINTRODUCTION11.1 Background of Study11.2 Statement of Problem31.3 Research Objective41.4 Scope of Research41.5 Structure of Dissertation5LITERATURE REVIEW2.1 Introduction62.2 Short Review of Slipway62.3 Types of Slipway92.4 Site Selection of Slipway Development112.4.1Bathymetry and Approach Channel112.4.2Sheltered Area12

viii2.4.3Environmental Impact122.4.4Soil Condition132.4.5Site Accessibility132.5 Main Component of Slipway142.5.1Repair Berth152.5.2Keel Blocks152.5.3Ground Ways162.5.4Sliding Ways162.5.5Cradle172.6 Design Theory of Slipway182.6.1Slipway Slope and Length Calculation182.6.2Pulling Capacity Calculation202.7 Factors Need To Be Considered in Develop a22New Slipway32.8 Overview of Technical Cost Model232.9 Overview of Regression Analysis242.10 Variable Selection for Regression Analysis252.11 Building of Regression Model27RESEARCH METHODOLOGY3.1Introduction303.2Research Methodology Flowchart313.3Selection of Research Variables323.4Data Collection343.5Development of Technical Model353.5.1Research Hyphotesis363.5.2Test for Statistical Significance403.5.3Interpretation of Pearson Correlation Result433.5.4Develop Technical Model453.6Development of Cost Estimation Model483.7Development of Excel Package553.8Model Verification563.9Model Validation58

ix4RESULT AND FINDINGS4.1Introduction604.2The Technical Model614.2.1Slipway Length614.2.2Slipway Breadth644.2.3Slipway Angle674.2.4Slipway Capacity694.2.5Cradle Length724.2.6Cradle Breadth754.35Cost Model774.3.1Engineering Cost814.3.2Earthwork Cost824.3.3Cradle Cost854.3.4Rail Track Cost864.3.5Winch Cost894.3.6Assembly Cost904.3.7Commissioning Cost924.4Excel Package for Technical Cost Model934.5Results of Model Verification964.6Results of Model ion on Results of Technical Model Developed 1005.3Discussion on the Trend of Current Slipway104Development Cost65.4Discussion on the Cost Model Developed1085.5Discussion on the Excel Package Developed1125.6Discussion on the Results of the Package Verification 1135.7Discussion on the Results of the Package Validation 114CONCLUSION6.1Overview of the Research1156.2Conclusion116

x6.3Recommendation for Future Works117REFERENCES119APPENDICES123

xiLIST OF TABLESTABLE NO.1.1TITLENumber of vessel registered to Malaysia Marine DepartmentPAGE3based on DWT2.1Magnitude of the Effect for Pearson’s Coefficient263.1Technical variable333.2Short listed variables333.3Factors that affect slipway construction cost343.4Regression assumption for technical model363.5Research hypothesis for length of slipway373.6Research hypothesis for breadth of slipway373.7Research hypothesis for angle of slipway383.8Research hypothesis for maximum capacity of slipway383.9Research hypothesis for cradle length393.10Research hypothesis for cradle breadth39

xii3.11Magnitude of the effect for Pearson’s Coefficient (r)403.12Pearson correlation result for slipway length413.13Pearson correlation result for slipway breadth413.14Pearson correlation result for angle of slipway413.15Pearson correlation result for maximum capacity of slipway423.16Pearson correlation result for cradle length423.17Pearson correlation result for cradle breadth423.18Final hypothesis for slipway length433.19Final hypothesis for slipway breadth433.20Final hypothesis for angle of slipway443.21Final hypothesis for slipway maximum capacity443.22Final hypothesis for cradle length443.23Final hypothesis for cradle breadth453.24Regression analysis data in identifying length of slipway463.25Regression analysis data in identifying breadth of slipway463.26Regression analysis data in identifying angle of slipway463.27Regression analysis data in identifying slipway capacity47

xiii3.28Regression analysis data in identifying length of cradle473.29Regression analysis data in identifying breadth of cradle473.30Cost consideration factors483.31Regression assumption for cost model503.32Conversion factors513.33Detail of cost figure as of year 2012 for slipway construction523.34Regression analysis data in identifying engineering cost533.35Regression analysis data in identifying earthwork cost533.36Regression analysis data in identifying cradle cost543.37Regression analysis data in identifying rail track cost543.38Regression analysis data in identifying winch cost543.39Regression analysis data in identifying assembly cost553.40Regression analysis data in identifying commissioning cost553.41Verification data563.42Verification input data for technical and cost model573.43Validation data for technical model583.44Validation data for cost model59

xiv4.1Regression statistic for slipway length model634.2Regression analysis for slipway length model634.3Regression statistic for slipway breadth model664.4Regression analysis for slipway breadth model664.5Regression statistic for slipway angle model684.6Regression analysis for slipway angle model694.7Regression statistic for slipway capacity model714.8Regression analysis for slipway capacity model714.9Regression statistic for cradle length model744.10Regression analysis for cradle length model744.11Regression statistic for cradle breadth model764.12Regression analysis for cradle breadth model774.13Regression statistic for engineering cost model814.14Regression analysis for engineering cost model824.15Regression statistic for earthwork cost model844.16Regression analysis for earthwork cost model844.17Regression statistic for cradle cost model86

xv4.18Regression analysis for cradle cost model864.19Regression statistic for rail track cost model884.20Regression analysis for rail track cost model884.21Regression statistic for winch cost model894.22Regression analysis for winch cost model904.23Regression statistic for assembly cost model914.24Regression analysis for assembly cost model914.25Regression statistic for commissioning cost model924.26Regression analysis for commissioning cost model934.27The summarize of verification results964.28Verification Results974.29Validation factor for the technical model developed994.30Validation factor for the cost model developed995.1List of technical variables1015.2Technical model for the slipway development1025.3Summary of statistical regression for technical components1045.4Cost model for slipway development109

xvi5.5Summary of statistical regression for cost components1115.6Verification result (Minimum Limit)1135.7Verification result (Maximum Limit)1135.8Validation results of the technical model developed1145.9Validation results of the cost model developed114

xviiLIST OF FIGURESFIGURE NO.TITLEPAGE2.1Slipway schematic diagram72.2Transverse or Crosswise Slipway92.3Longitudinal Slipway102.4Main Components of Slipway142.5Free body diagram of force in slipway slope192.6Acceleration and velocity of sloping cradle212.7Different Types of Scatterplot272.8Possible Power Transformation for Strengthen Scatterplot282.9Typical Pattern for Residual Plot293.1Flowchart of research methodology313.2The flow chart of regression analysis353.3Relationship between cost and technical factors494.1Residual plot of ship length for slipway length model62

xviii4.2Residual plot of ship draft for slipway length model624.3Residual plot of ship deadweight for slipway length model624.4Residual plot of ship breadth for slipway length model634.5Residual plot of ship length for slipway breadth model644.6Residual plot of ship draft for slipway breadth model654.7Residual plot of ship deadweight for slipway breadth model654.8Residual plot of ship breadth for slipway breadth model654.9Residual plot of ship length for slipway angle model674.10Residual plot of ship draft for slipway angle model674.11Residual plot of ship deadweight for slipway angle model684.12Residual plot of ship breadth for slipway angle model684.13Residual plot of ship length for slipway capacity model704.14Residual plot of ship draft for slipway capacity model704.15Residual plot of ship deadweight for slipway capacity model704.16Residual plot of ship breadth for slipway capacity model714.17Residual plot of ship length for cradle length model724.18Residual plot of ship draft for cradle length model73

xix4.19Residual plot of ship deadweight for cradle length model734.20Residual plot of ship breadth for cradle length model734.21Residual plot of ship length for cradle breadth model754.22Residual plot of ship draft for cradle breadth model754.23Residual plot of ship deadweight for cradle breadth model764.24Residual plot of ship breadth for cradle breadth model764.25Percentage of cost element for Geliga Slipway 1784.26Percentage of cost element for Geliga Slipway 2784.27Percentage of cost element for Geliga Slipway 3784.28Percentage of cost element for Muhibbah Engineering794.29Percentage of cost element for Sapor Engineering794.30Percentage of cost element for University Kuala Lumpur794.31Percentage of cost element for Sarawak Slipway804.32Percentage of cost element for Prospect Dockyard804.33Percentage of cost element for Tok Bali Dockyard804.34Residual plot of maximum slipway capacity for engineering81cost model4.35Residual plot of slipway length for earthwork cost model83

xx4.36Residual plot of slipway breadth for earthwork cost model834.37Residual plot of slipway angle for earthwork cost model834.38Residual plot of cradle length for cradle cost model854.39Residual plot of cradle breadth for cradle cost model854.40Residual plot of slipway length for rail track cost model874.41Residual plot of slipway breadth for rail track cost model874.42Residual plot of slipway capacity for rail track cost model874.43Residual plot of slipway capacity for winch cost model894.44Residual plot of slipway capacity for assembly cost model904.45Residual plot of slipway capacity for commissioning92cost model4.46Information and instruction sheet for the technical cost94model package4.47Input value and result sheet of the technical cost model95package4.48Validation result of the excel package985.1Percentage of cost element of slipway construction107project within Malaysia

CHAPTER 1INTRODUCTION1.1Background of StudySlipways are structures to transfer vessels to or from water for temporarystorage of ship repair or new ship building purposes. Maintenance and repair arerequired by all vessels to keep them in good conditions. Furthermore, it is anobligatory for a vessel to be pulled up for checking and inspection every five years(Soric. Z, 2005). These requirements made slipways and other dry docking methodsto be the workhorses of the ship repair facilities.Slipways are extensively used in small yards in Malaysia to accommodatesmall or medium size vessels. The slipways are widely used in ship repair and shipbuilding industries before the existence of another method of the new technologiessuch as dry dock, ship lift and floating dock. However, till now the slipways playimportant role in the ship repair industries due to minimal cost for the ship ownercompared to the other methods with the new technologies.According to Mackie et al. (2006), usually slipways can accommodate vesselweight up to 3000 ton. However, it is a high risk to load any vessel more than suchweight due to safety issues as the stability of the vessel on the slipway totally

2depends on the center of gravity of the vessel. Hence, loading a vessel with morethan the stated weight will lead to a risk of collapse.Generally, the main component of a slipway consists of winch, rail track andcradle. However, the critical element is the rail track as highlighted by Mackie et al.(2006). The rail track is made up of a deck system with a flat slab and is supportedwith bore cast in situ piles.Slipway construction project evolved through a series of stages, beginningfrom the preliminary study, followed by several design stages and finallyimplementation of the design through the actual construction. In conjunction withsuch stages, preliminary design and cost estimation are very important for thedeveloper or project owner. According to Yaman (2007), since 1950s efforts havebeen made to understand the cause-effect relationship between design parametersand the construction cost as well as to develop a model in estimating the constructioncost.The research addressed the need of a user friendly and reliable technical andcost estimation model on slipway construction during early stage of a project andproposed a conceptual technical and cost estimation method that relies oninformation known before the detailed plan and specifications identified. Predictionmodel for the principal dimension and size of the cradle is developed usingregression analysis. The data used is collected from the shipyards with slipways inMalaysia.The model developed in this research can be used as a tool to assist thedeveloper or project owner to identify the particulars of the slipway including thelength, breadth, angle of the slipway as well as the cradle size and the requiredfunding for the overall slipway construction project. Users only need to state thedesired design criteria such as length, breadth, draft and deadweight by referring tothe maximum vessel to be slipped on the slipway. The model will perform thecalculation and produce the output for the principal dimension of the slipway and thecost to be incurred in the construction process.

31.2Statement of ProblemGenerally, slipway is the most cost effective dry docking method for smallvessels. It is not worth to docking vessels up to 3000 tons on dry dock, ship lift orfloating dock since the cost would be slightly higher compared to docking on aslipway. The higher cost is the resultant of the higher technology used special andcomplex design of the docking system which is more suitable for larger vessels.According to the list of ship registered to Malaysia Marine Department, thereare 2150 numbers of ships have a deadweight less than 3000 ton. The detail data ispresented in Table 1.1.Table 1.1: Number of vessel registered to Malaysia Marine Department based onDWT (, 26 Feb 2012)Deadweight(Ton)No. of Vessel 30003000-1000010000-20000 2000021501333420300Based on the data, it can be interpreted that slipways will be more demandingin Malaysia since the vessels with capacity of 3000 ton are higher in numbercompared to other capacities. However, the current developer or shipbuilders arepotentially facing many challenges to design and construct the slipway since there isno coherent design theory and pre-design cost estimation which is the crucialelements to construct the slipway. Hence, an effort is necessitated to fill in the gap asto facilitate the requirement of slipway development.As mentioned by Mackie (2006), specialized theory is required in designingand determining the cost of the slipway. It is not a rocket science but road geometricsof civil engineering as well as hydrostatics and stability analysis from navalarchitecture side are required. Considering such thought, this research attempts to

4develop simple mathematical equations to identify the principal dimension of theslipway and the early cost estimation.In the early stage or pre-design stage, most basic and functional decisionswhich comprised of principal dimensions and construction cost should be made bythe developer or project owner. The developer or project owner required a techniqueor a system to emphasise and prioritise their effort to control the project cost,otherwise worst impact will affect the total cost of the slipway construction project.Therefore, the mathematical equations developed in the current study will benefit thedeveloper and project owner in managing the project by predicting the basicprincipal dimension and estimating the slipway construction cost.1.3Research objectiveThe objective of this research as per following: To develop a technical model for a main slipway parameters. To develop a cost model for slipway construction. To develop an excel package which can be used as a tool for predicting theprincipal dimension and cost of the slipway construction.1.4Scope of the researchThe scopes of the research are as follows.i.This research will develop a cost model for slipway which based on technicaland construction parameter applicable in Malaysia.

5ii.This research focusing on quantitative parameters only.iii.The technical and cost model includes only the slipway main parameters andthe construction cost for the main components of the slipway while theoverhead cost are excludediv.The cost model developed focuses on the construction cost only while theland price are neglectedv.1.5The historical data is collected from the shipyards in Malaysia onlyStructure of ThesisThis thesis is divided into six chapters. Each chapter has been partitioned intofew parts where each part has its own sectioning. The sectioning and partitioninghave been carefully done hence the content and the positioning emphasise the wholeflow of the dissertation.Chapter 1 is the introduction of the research which contains five partsincluding the background of the research, the problem statement, the objective andthe scope of the research. Chapter 2 reviews all topics which are essential tounderstand the detail of the research and hence the content is related to the literatureon slipway design, technical and cost model as well as the regression analysis.Chapter 3 overviews the detail of the methodology applied in the research whichcovers all the utilized methods and activities performed towards achieving therequired results. Chapter 4 presents the result generated from the study which isfurther discussed in Chapter 5. Finally, chapter 6 concludes and highlights researchachievements and makes some recommendations for the possible continuation of theresearch.

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124Technical data for Geliga Slipway 1DESCRIPTIONLimitation FactorSlipwayParameterCradle ParameterITEMUNITVALUEVessel Length (Max)m32Breadth (Max)m10tonnes400Vessel Draft (Max)m2.6Length of Slipwaym65Breadth of Slipwaym15Maximum Capacitytonnes500Angle of Slipwaydegree2Length of Cradlem34Breadth of Cradlem16Deadweigh

teknikal dan kos pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapal. Pakej ini telah disahkan dengan menggunakan data yang terdahulu untuk menentukan had kebolehan pakej dalam menentukan parameter utama dan kos pembinaan tempat pelancaran kapal. Teknikal dan kos model yang dibina sesuai untuk pel